Two Weeks

Fourteen days is all we have, everybody. Two weeks, fourteen days, three hundred and thirty six hours (well, 320 now), and approx. 20,000 minutes to get this man elected:



















Volunteer. Donate. Vote.

GoogleBomb Time

Yes, it's GoogleBomb Time. Truth be told, I'm not 100% sure what GoogleBombing is, but it seems like something that can make a difference. Chris Bowers at MyDD has the run-down on the what and why. Basically, it's getting the articles we want to be the first thing people see when they Google a specific term. This has the right-wing blogosphere scared, so that alone is a reason to do this.

The specific article concerning J.D. Hayworth we are GoogleBombing is the Arizona Republic piece on the shenanigans of J.D.'s camp at Scottsdale Temple Beth Israel last week.

If you have been living under a rock and don't know what happened at Temple Beth Israel last week, then the answers are a click away.

And here, I drop the G-Bomb:

--AZ-Sen: Jon Kyl
--AZ-01: Rick Renzi
--AZ-05: J.D. Hayworth
--CA-04: John Doolittle
--CA-11: Richard Pombo
--CA-50: Brian Bilbray
--CO-04: Marilyn Musgrave
--CO-05: Doug Lamborn
--CO-07: Rick O'Donnell
--CT-04: Christopher Shays
--FL-13: Vernon Buchanan
--FL-16: Joe Negron
--FL-22: Clay Shaw
--ID-01: Bill Sali
--IL-06: Peter Roskam
--IL-10: Mark Kirk
--IL-14: Dennis Hastert
--IN-02: Chris Chocola
--IN-08: John Hostettler
--IA-01: Mike Whalen
--KS-02: Jim Ryun
--KY-03: Anne Northup
--KY-04: Geoff Davis
--MD-Sen: Michael Steele
--MN-01: Gil Gutknecht
--MN-06: Michele Bachmann
--MO-Sen: Jim Talent
--MT-Sen: Conrad Burns
--NV-03: Jon Porter
--NH-02: Charlie Bass
--NJ-07: Mike Ferguson
--NM-01: Heather Wilson
--NY-03: Peter King
--NY-20: John Sweeney
--NY-26: Tom Reynolds
--NY-29: Randy Kuhl
--NC-08: Robin Hayes
--NC-11: Charles Taylor
--OH-01: Steve Chabot
--OH-02: Jean Schmidt
--OH-15: Deborah Pryce
--OH-18: Joy Padgett
--PA-04: Melissa Hart
--PA-07: Curt Weldon
--PA-08: Mike Fitzpatrick
--PA-10: Don Sherwood
--RI-Sen: Lincoln Chafee
--TN-Sen: Bob Corker
--VA-Sen: George Allen
--VA-10: Frank Wolf
--WA-Sen: Mike McGavick
--WA-08: Dave Reichert

SUSA: Harry Within MoE!

A new SUSA poll is out!

10/13-15; 509 Likely Voters; MoE +/- 4.4%

Hayworth: 48
Mitchell: 45
Severin: 5
Undecided: 2

This is amazing. J.D. has given this all he got, and it's getting him no where. He has tried bringing up "dirt" on Harry from the 1980s. That didn't work. Then he has hit Harry on immigration with threats of amnesty or giving illegal immigrants Social Security benefits. That hasn't worked. Expect J.D. to get even more vicious with his attacks and expect lies and spin.

This is about ground game now. I cannot stress this enough:

Volunteer.

Reserve election day to help Harry GOTV. Go canvassing on the weekends and even if you have an hour, stop by his HQ and phonebank.

This isn't in the bag, yet, but there is no way Hayworth is going to gain any more ground. This poll indicates that Republican turnout will not be as high as past elections. J.D. has already pissed off some in his anti-immigrant base by rescinding his Pearce endorsement. Now, let's get those voters out and hopefully by December, J.D. will be looking for a new sportscaster job.

Other news:

- Geo covers Radar's "100 Dumbest Congressmen," with J.D. coming in at #4. Yeah, #4. We are represented by the fourth dumbest man in Congress. Geo, the nice guy that he is, says J.D. isn't dumb, he's "critically insight-challenged." It's well worth the read.

- FactCheck.org has refuted J.D.'s assertation that Harry's immigration plan (the same as McCain's, Flake's, Kolbe's, and Bush's) will give Social Security benefits to illegal aliens.

- Craig has all the details about tonight's CD-5 candidate forum.

- Harry's website reports he has received the Rural/Metro endorsement.

Have a good Tuesday evening, everybody!

The DCCC Isn't Going Anywhere

There has been a flurry of reports in the right-wing blogosphere that the DCCC is pulling out of CD-5. As Tedski reports, nothing can be further from the truth:

"He was very excited about Ellen Simon, and I said, well, good, since the D-Trip seems to have abandoned Harry Mitchell.

'What? What are you talking about?'

I told him that I had read on some conservative blogs about the DCCC pulling out of Mitchell's race. He said that no such thing has happened, that DCCC chair Rahm Emanuel visited the district just this week.

Apparently, this rumor started when the existing ad buy had to be rescheduled to start earlier. This meant that some later ads were cancelled. The D-Trip is still planning on unloading $1.7 million on this race, and their polling still shows Mitchell even or sligtly ahead of J. D. Hayworth."

(emphasis mine)

That's not a small chunk of change. I'd love to see the DCCC's polling on the race. Perhaps the unfounded mystery poll (with Harry down by four) was a Harry internal. We know the poll with Harry up was initiated by the DCCC.

Also, Craig at Random Musings has the details on this past quarter's fundraising totals. Harry outraised J.D. in total individual donations and the number of individual donors. This is a grassroots campaign, no doubt about it. I'll do some research into the PAC's that donated to J.D., giving him the $161K advantage over Harry in the quarter. It seems obvious that only corporate and radical interests want J.D. in Congress. The people want Harry Mitchell.

Donate. Volunteer. Spread the word. AND VOTE!!

Personal Note: I just moved into a new place in Tempe. I don't have internet access yet, but hopefully that will change soon, so bear with me if The Word seems like a ghost-town for the next week or so. I'll do my best to blog from school and sneak in a few minutes at work (like I'm doing now ;) ).

The Russell Pearce Scandal Spills into CD-5

For those that don't already know, State Representative Russell Pearce of District in Mesa recently sent out an e-mail to supporters citing an article from the racist group, the National Alliance. Plugged In covers the whole crazy thing here, along with Pearce's apology.

Pearce is in hot water. First, it was supporting a revival of "Operation Wetback," and now it is forwarding racist, Neo-Nazi trash to his supporters. From what others have told me his district has a sizable Latino population. Sure Mesa is conservative, but this isn't shaping up to be a good year for any conservative. I have met his opponent, Tammie Pursley, and I think it's a race she can win.

The scandal has spilled into CD-5. On Tuesday, J.D. Hayworth rescinded his endorsement of Russell Pearce.

"Given the regrettable and disturbing nature of the email Russell Pearce circulated earlier this week, I cannot in good conscience lend my endorsement to his candidacy for State Representative. While Russell has issued an apology for his emails, I nonetheless will not be associated with any communication that contains anti-Semetic remarks."

(emphasis mine)

Good for J.D., but this press release wasn't thought through very well, huh?

We all remember J.D.'s reference in his book to Henry Ford and "Americanization" and the fallout from that. The Arizona Jewish community was not very happy and the AZ blogosphere was abuzz with talk of J.D. and his choice of heros. So, here J.D. gets an opportunity to publicly wash his hands. After all, instead of saying he wasn't going to be associated with racist remarks, or neo-Nazi remarks, he said there would be no association with anti-Semitic remarks.

By no means do I think this implies J.D. was perfectly okay with all the other crap on that website or in Pearce's article. But that press release was deliberate in its wording. J.D. is out to do anything and say anything to get re-elected. Using this scandal to throw off any anti-Semitic accusations is par for the course.

What I find more intriguing is the reaction amongst die-hard conservatives. They are calling him a coward for rescinding his endorsement. A traitor. A filthy opportunist. And these were people that were going to or would vote for J.D. Hayworth.

Bob Haran, a regular poster at Plugged In had this to say (all emphasis below mine):

Let's look at how J.D. Hayworth has conducted himself in this campaign. He was falsely accused of being anti-Semitic and I defended him on these pages because I believed then and still do, believe that J.D. Hayworth is not anti-Semitic. However, when Russell Pearce forwards an E-mail without completely reading it and it turns out to have anti-Semitic trash in it and the wolfs come after Pearce, ready to brand him, unjustly, with the scarlet letter of anti-Semitism, what is J.D. Hayworth's response. Well, J.D. sees it as the perfect opportunity to get himself out from under the anti-Semite cloud by withdrawing his support for someone else that has been falsely accused of anti-Semitism.

Well, Mr. Hayworth, you succeeded in proving to the world that you're not a racist or anti-Semite, the truth, everyone, except the idiot's in Harry Mitchell's camp, already knew you were to smart to be a racist or anti-Semite, and no matter what you say or do, they're going to keep calling you those names, they're not going to let the truth get in the way. However, by your abandonment of someone else that is also being falsely made to look like an anti-Semite, you show your true character, you're a coward. When you were being falsely accused of anti-Semitism, I don't remember anyone withdrawing their support for you. People stood by you because they knew the accusation to be false, but when a similar tactic, I call it the new McCarthyism, is used against someone else, your quick to take advantage of the situation for your own benefit.

Well, Mr. Hayworth, excuse me if I withdraw my support for your re-election, not that I'm supported Harry Mitchell, the mans a worthless liar, but your a worthless coward, and if I lived in CD 5, I wouldn't vote for either one of you. None of the Above would be the best choice in CD 5.

Bob Haran,
Independent Conservative"

Another conservative named John2393 also weighed in:

"I was going to vote for Jd, but now I will not. At least Peacre stood up for what he believe and the US Citizens. I am sorry that JD wasn't un able stand up for what he has been saying.

Scott who been posting on this board was right, and I was wrong for disagreeing with him.

Pearce is a real man and no matter what it cost him, he did not back down from his belief. I can be proud of a man like him. He is the type of person who we need in DC for us. Not afraid to hurt some people felling to tell the truth.

JD you have not been honest and you could of been re-elected. Step away from Pearce for it might cost you a vote, but how many did it cost you to walk away."

Poster 206isCancer at Arizona Congress Watch:

This is ridiculous! JD should be absolutely ashamed of himself. Russell Pearce is one of Arizona’s best Representatives. He’s one of the few who really cares about the Constitution. If a man profusely apologizes for something, then we have this little thing called forgiveness. It is pitiful that Republicans continue their “Throw their own overboard” mentality. Russell Pearce is a truly decent American, and he has always put himself out there with strong legislation that protects Arizona. So, the Libs have always wanted to throw him overboard any chance that they get. Too bad, they don’t realize how popular Russell Pearce is in his home Legislative District, and that the more the Libs attack him, the more his supporters will rally around him. Hayworth, once again, shows that he’s a complete blowhard. He loves to try to talk the Conservative talk, but he does not walk the Conservative walk. Remember that JD was opposed to Proposition 200 in 2004 (just like everybody else on the Republican side) except Randy Pullen, Randy Graf, and Russell Pearce. So, what do you expect? JD’s campaign is in an absolute tailspin right now. There is a good chance at this point that JD could lose to some really old dude, and that would suck for Republicans. But it’s JD’s own fault for not putting his money where his mouth is."

Russell Pearce citing neo-Nazis? Disgusting. Hayworth denouncing Pearce for it? Upstanding. Hayworth's base staying home in November because of it? Priceless.

Harry Leads in New Internal Poll!

The Mitchell camp has released an internal poll paid for by the DCCC.

Grove Insights: 400 Likely Voters, +/- 4.1% MoE

Mitchell: 40
Hayworth: 37
Undecided/Third Party Candidates: 23

I heard rumors about a Mitchell internal poll that had him down by four. Were the rumors wrong, lost in translation, or did the campaign conduct another poll? I doubt the latter is true.

The released poll was first announced in Time magazine, but there were no details. This internal is good news. It shows Hayworth is still weak and Harry has good traction amongst his base. I bet a lot of those undecideds are independents or moderate Republicans that will pull for Harry come November.

Polling has been all over the place with this campaign. The SUSA poll and Hayworth's own NRCC-backed internal were close in range, but SUSA oversampled Republicans and the details were a bit sketchy at best. I would bet that one more poll will be done by the first week of November. Possibly ASU/KAET.

J.D. In the Cross-hairs

Espresso Pundit posted the following on his blog yesterday:

Harry to JD: Make My Day

Here's a still shot of an image that briefly flashes across the screen in Harry Mitchell's latest commercial. The subliminal message is obvious.

There is a thin line between legitimate campaign imagery and hate speech. Placing your opponent's head in the crosshairs of a sniper rifle crosses that line.

They don't call him Dirty Harry for nothing.

*end*

Okay, so J.D.'s head is in the center of crosshairs. Espresso Pundit assumes sniper rifle, the first thing I thought when I saw it was camera, but whatever. The message is clear: J.D. Hayworth is targetted for his House seat.

Espresso Pundit calls it hate speech. A bit of a stretch, but I find it funny that the term "hate speech" is used to defend a guy that is just full of it. Oh, J.D. knows how to mask his rhetoric, behind his book or behind the Minutemen or Bikers for the Border. But when someone is using the word "invasion" to describe thousands of illegal aliens coming here to work... then they shouldn't be surprised to find themselves in the crosshairs of defeat.

Less Than Five Weeks To Go...

The November elections are a little more than a month away and I've been slacking. At least when it comes to blogging. Between going to work and school, studying and volunteering, and what little social life I have, that time left over is when all you want to do is sleep. But now is not the time! I apologize for the two week lapse in updates, it won't happen again, especially as we get down to the wire.

But what a two weeks it has been! The American public is absolutely sour about Iraq. The country is bursting at the seams. Bush currently holds a 61% disapproval rating on Iraq. A large majority of Americans just aren't eating up Bush's crap that Iraq is a central front to the war on terror. It is becoming widely recognized that Iraq is making us less safe.

Bob Woodward has released a new book and I'm going to be worried when this guy dies. Over the course of thirty years, Woodward has been at the top of investigative reporting and his work led to the downfall of one of the most corrupt politicians in our history. Now, he's working on his second downfall in the making. New revelations about what the Bush Administration knew before 9.11.2001 and their subsequent responses have broken through in the mainstream media. It seems that it wasn't Clinton's fault after all... I find it ironic that ABC has done most of the work on the Foley scandal thus far, only a couple of weeks after the GOP-fellate-fest that was "The Path to 9.11".

And, of course, the Foley Scandal. We all know the story: Foley preys on underage male pages. House GOP Leadership finds out. Does nothing. Acts to preserve a seat rather than preserve the safety of children in their charge. Then lies about it.

Make no mistake about it: This scandal will affect every single House race in this election. I would bet most Republican voters are re-thinking their options for November. Some of the most avid believers in the modern GOP cause will want to sit this one out. They won't vote for Democrats, but they sure will sit on their hands on Nov. 7 and pout over their loss.

The rank-and-file Republicans have lost their Party. This is Arizona, a fairly conservative state. I know many Republicans. They are good people, smart people, and most have principled positions. They may disagree with Democrats or be outright fearful of us, but they don't stand for covering up the actions of child predators in the halls of Congress. The House is for Democrats to lose.

What does this mean for J.D. Hayworth?

Well, he's probably afraid that some of his hardcore GOP base will be turned-off completely by the Foley Scandal and sit this one out. He should be worried that Harry Mitchell will gain GOP and more indy votes for demanding accountability and arguing for new leadership (both within the GOP pre-election and an elected Democratic leadership post-election). He should be worried that immigration is taking a back-seat (hell, immigration is in the trunk) to Iraq and the Foley scandal.

The events of the past two weeks have been a gift to Democrats, every Democrat, including Harry Mitchell. It is important that Harry get his message of new, honest leadership out there. So canvass, phone bank, and donate. Talk to your friends, neighbors, co-workers, and family. It is also important that Harry demands that J.D. support a full investigation and call for the resignation of Dennis Hastert. So call J.D.'s office and tell him to do just that. When he doesn't (and he won't), that will be Harry's cue to pounce.

This is ours, guys. Ours to take. Let's not let this one slip away.

Note: In my absence there has been plenty to read around the blogosphere. Craig at Random Musings has been keeping very busy and every post is well worth the read. Geo at Precinct 134 is back and has a new piece. Check out AZ Netroots, where Tim O has been doing some blogging on polling and other topics. And if you want a full re-cap on news and information, then I suggest dropping by AZ Congress Watch and Plugged In. No worries!