The Word From Arizona's Fifth District

Thursday, November 09, 2006

No, I wasn't celebrating too hard not to blog yesterday

Yesterday, I was writing a nice, long post and my laptop overheated. I lost everything. I was so frustrated that I said screw it, do it tomorrow. So, sorry for the lack of blogging the day after the elections.

The Secretary of State's website was updated this afternoon, but the numbers are all still the same from yesterday:

Mitchell- 71,077 (50.5%)
Hayworth- 65,122 (46.2%)
Severin- 4,620 (3.3%)

Harry Mitchell is our new Congressman! J.D. has not yet conceded and Harry has not yet declared victory because a number of votes are still uncounted. An estimated 258,000 votes are still uncounted as of yesterday in Maricopa County. Most of them are absentee, early voting, and provisional ballots. Let's say a fifth of those are from CD-5. Hayworth would have to get an overwhelming majority of those to close Harry's ~6,000 vote gap. It's not going to happen.

I don't think J.D. is being a sore-loser or a crybaby for wanting every vote counted. Put yourself in his shoes. Five or so months ago, he was safe, despite DCCC internal polling and Harry's fundraising numbers. That was the conventional wisdom. A Democrat would not be able to win in this Republican-leaning district that is worried about immigration issues. The CW was dead wrong and J.D. was thoroughly trounced on Tuesday. I can't wait until the precinct break-down is out because those numbers are going to be interesting. J.D. now finds himself a loser and wants to hold on to that last shred of hope he can eek out a victory. Let him have that tiny bit of hope, because in a few months we'll see him on FOX News instead of in the halls of Congress.

Harry has been very classy. Tuesday night, one of the last updates had him almost 8,000 votes up, an incredible margin. No one thought this race would be decided by more than a few thousand (or even just a thousand) votes. Not only that, but he held the majority of votes most of the night. Harry has refused to declare victory and is waiting until every vote is counted. No one would bat an eye if he did declare victory.

The campaign party on election night was very fun and exciting. Harry's name was chanted over and over again. In his speech, you could tell how grateful he was at all the volunteers, donors, and supporters. It looked like he was about to burst with happiness. Even his wife Marianne got a chant. The room was estatic as results came in and one of the biggest applauds came when CNN reported Allen's lead in Virginia was gone and Webb was on top. Before that point, we all felt that we couldn't take the Senate. It was good to meet Geo from Precinct 134 at the party, and I feel bad for missing so many more of my fellow bloggers. That's what happens when, I guess, when I'm in a corner live-blogging.

So, now we are required to discuss the future of CD-5. No doubt, Harry will be a great Congressman and I think he'll win over many others who voted for Hayworth or Severin. Who will the GOP field against him in 2008? Conservatives over at the Sonoran Alliance blog have floated Michele Reagan as a possible candidate. She is the current State Representative from LD-8 in Scottsdale. From what I hear, she is pretty moderate like Carolyn Allen, who is also a possible candidate. John Huppenthal, conservative State Senator from the Chandler/Ahwatukee area, I think, is a possible contender to balance Reagan's or Allen's moderate positions.

Too early to speculate? Yeah, probably, let's just enjoy Harry Mitchell being our new Congressman.

I should also open discussion to the future of this blog. Obviously, I started this blog to cover the race in the district, but the race is over for the next year and a half or so, what should I focus on?

This is a post-election open thread! GO!

3 Comments:

At 6:19 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As for the immediate future of the blog, don't close up the politics shop yet - we still have close to 7 weeks worth of JD's lame duck status to keep an eye on.

There could be so ugly legislation coming out of these last few weeks of this session of Congress.

 
At 1:44 AM, Blogger Thomas said...

Interesting blog.

I am a Republican but I appreciate your enthusiasm.

I know that Republicans have an advantage in party affiliation in the 5th district.

Why did Republican voters go against Hayworth? I understood that he and Mitchell had similar but not identical immigration views.

What were the other issues in play?

 
At 8:39 AM, Blogger Geo said...

Hi Tim, great to see you at the party and good to see your laptop is working again!

I'd dearly love to see Huppenthal challenge Harry!

Donna Gratehouse, Hupp's opponent this year in the LD20 Senate race, was a complete unknown. But she's a very good candidate and ran an excellent campaign and nearly beat him with 48% of the vote. (I hope and expect her to run again in '08.)

If Hupp ran against Harry, Harry would pound him easily, and Gratehouse would pick up Hupp's old seat even easier.

But, like you, I'm happy to enjoy Harry as our Congressman without getting too strategic about '08.

Well, at least for a few more days...

:)

 

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