All the votes are in...

Every provisional and absentee ballot in Maricopa County has been counted. Definite props to the election workers. According to AZCentral, they were working 12 hour shifts.

So, with the end of vote tallying comes the end results.

Mitchell- 101,838 (50.4%)
Hayworth- 93,815 (46.4%)
Severin- 6,357 (3.1%)

Harry has won by over 8,000 votes. This is a larger spread than a lot of other key races around the country. Not only that, but this is supposed to be a solidly Republican district. Conservatives within the Arizona blogosphere have been adamant that Harry Mitchell is doomed to be a one-term Congressman. They like throwing Sam Coppersmith's name around when talking about this. It's not going to happen like that, though. Granted, Harry will have a race on his hands come 2008. It's bound to happen with the registration advantage the GOP has in this district.

But Harry is going to impress. There is a reason so many Republicans crossed over to vote for him. Independents in this district are the key and Harry won them overwhelmingly. They'll be here in 2008 and they'll vote for Harry again. Tempe is now a Democratic stronghold.

The next two years are going to be interesting on the GOP side of things. Will they nominate a moderate Scottsdale Republican? Or will they go with the Rosati/Huppenthal type crowd? Either way, Harry will be ready and waiting.

J.D. Concedes

In a statement posted on his website today, J.D. concedes the race to Harry Mitchell.

"While there are still tens of thousands of votes left to count, it has become apparent that it is unlikely we'll get enough of these votes to win the election. We were confident we would close the gap as the early ballots were counted, and we have, but at this point it doesn't appear to be enough. Of course, if the result of the count changes, obviously I will abide by the will of the people.

Therefore let me congratulate Harry for his likely victory in what was a tough campaign and wish him the best of luck. I would also like to thank my supporters and the thousands of volunteers who devoted their time to my campaigns over the years. I would be remiss if I did not single out the incredible efforts of so many volunteers in this most recent campaign.

I also want to thank my hard-working staff both here in Washington and in the district those who served in an official capacity and those who worked on the campaign.

One group the group closest to me never got time off during my 12 years in public office my family. To my wife, Mary and our three children I say: Thanks for standing by me. Leaving the House isn't so bad, since I get to come home.

But most of all, I would like to thank the people of Arizona I represented for over a decade. Thank you for the honor of serving in the Congress of the United States."

Ladies and gentlemen of District Five...

Your New Congressman!

OK, J.D., Give It Up

The vote tallying still continues, but nothing has changed. Since yesterday, Harry's lead shrunk by 23 votes. There is no way J.D. can make up a nearly 6,000 vote difference with the limited amount of uncounted ballots, of which he would have to get ove 60%.

Seriously, J.D., stop. Yesterday, I didn't call him a crybaby or a sore-loser, but for the sake of your current constituents, concede now. Harry Mitchell is going to be our next Congressman. He has been gracious in not declaring victory, but I think it's about high time he should. Harry is gathering his transition team, which will be headed by former Congressman Sam Coppersmith, also of Liberal Desert. He has been invited by the Clerk of the House to the freshman orientation in Washington. The race has been called by every major news and political outlet. Even Rush Limbaugh is saying J.D. is done.

Please, J.D., I'll forget every stupid thing you ever did if you just end it all. Right now.

No, I wasn't celebrating too hard not to blog yesterday

Yesterday, I was writing a nice, long post and my laptop overheated. I lost everything. I was so frustrated that I said screw it, do it tomorrow. So, sorry for the lack of blogging the day after the elections.

The Secretary of State's website was updated this afternoon, but the numbers are all still the same from yesterday:

Mitchell- 71,077 (50.5%)
Hayworth- 65,122 (46.2%)
Severin- 4,620 (3.3%)

Harry Mitchell is our new Congressman! J.D. has not yet conceded and Harry has not yet declared victory because a number of votes are still uncounted. An estimated 258,000 votes are still uncounted as of yesterday in Maricopa County. Most of them are absentee, early voting, and provisional ballots. Let's say a fifth of those are from CD-5. Hayworth would have to get an overwhelming majority of those to close Harry's ~6,000 vote gap. It's not going to happen.

I don't think J.D. is being a sore-loser or a crybaby for wanting every vote counted. Put yourself in his shoes. Five or so months ago, he was safe, despite DCCC internal polling and Harry's fundraising numbers. That was the conventional wisdom. A Democrat would not be able to win in this Republican-leaning district that is worried about immigration issues. The CW was dead wrong and J.D. was thoroughly trounced on Tuesday. I can't wait until the precinct break-down is out because those numbers are going to be interesting. J.D. now finds himself a loser and wants to hold on to that last shred of hope he can eek out a victory. Let him have that tiny bit of hope, because in a few months we'll see him on FOX News instead of in the halls of Congress.

Harry has been very classy. Tuesday night, one of the last updates had him almost 8,000 votes up, an incredible margin. No one thought this race would be decided by more than a few thousand (or even just a thousand) votes. Not only that, but he held the majority of votes most of the night. Harry has refused to declare victory and is waiting until every vote is counted. No one would bat an eye if he did declare victory.

The campaign party on election night was very fun and exciting. Harry's name was chanted over and over again. In his speech, you could tell how grateful he was at all the volunteers, donors, and supporters. It looked like he was about to burst with happiness. Even his wife Marianne got a chant. The room was estatic as results came in and one of the biggest applauds came when CNN reported Allen's lead in Virginia was gone and Webb was on top. Before that point, we all felt that we couldn't take the Senate. It was good to meet Geo from Precinct 134 at the party, and I feel bad for missing so many more of my fellow bloggers. That's what happens when, I guess, when I'm in a corner live-blogging.

So, now we are required to discuss the future of CD-5. No doubt, Harry will be a great Congressman and I think he'll win over many others who voted for Hayworth or Severin. Who will the GOP field against him in 2008? Conservatives over at the Sonoran Alliance blog have floated Michele Reagan as a possible candidate. She is the current State Representative from LD-8 in Scottsdale. From what I hear, she is pretty moderate like Carolyn Allen, who is also a possible candidate. John Huppenthal, conservative State Senator from the Chandler/Ahwatukee area, I think, is a possible contender to balance Reagan's or Allen's moderate positions.

Too early to speculate? Yeah, probably, let's just enjoy Harry Mitchell being our new Congressman.

I should also open discussion to the future of this blog. Obviously, I started this blog to cover the race in the district, but the race is over for the next year and a half or so, what should I focus on?

This is a post-election open thread! GO!

Last Update

With 94.8% reporting:

Hayworth- 44701 (44.3%)
Mitchell- 52663 (52.2%)
Severin- 3493 (3.5%)

I'm too excited to keep blogging. Even if Hayworth gets all of that last 5.2%, he'll lose. Harry Mitchell is our new Congressmen. Congrats, everyone, it was a hard-fought victory.

Now, time to celebrate, I'll be back tomorrow with total results and commentary. Good night!

Update #4

With 88.4% reporting:

Hayworth- 42075 (44.5%)
Mitchell- 49260 (52.1%)
Severin- 3242 (3.4%)

Another Update

With 68% reporting:

Hayworth- 32962 (44.6%)
Mitchell- 38,504 (52.1%)
Severin - 2425 (3.3%)

This is awesome.

Update:

With 78% reporting:

Hayworth- 38283 (52%)
Mitchell- 44523 (44.7%)
Severin- 2814 (3.3%)

Update #2

New numbers from the County Recorder

34% precincts reporting

Hayworth- 18498
Mitchell- 21108
Severin- 1241

So far so good!

Waiting at Mission Palms

Results should be coming any time now. I'm at the Mitchell/Ableser/Schapira campaign party at the Mission Palms in downtown Tempe. The County Recorder's website has some early votes already counted. The format for the site sucks and it's taking forever. This waiting thing sucks.

County Recorder Early Voting Totals:

Hayworth- 3537
Mitchell- 3241
Severin- 166

This is good news so far, Mitchell is very close behind in early voting totals. I heard turnout in Tempe was huge, that's going to help a lot.

More updates very soon!

Polls will be closing soon

Barring anything from happening, the polls will close at seven. Results should come in about an hour or so after, maybe sooner, maybe later. If the race is very, very, very close, then we won't have a winner tonight. It will be close, but no one knows if it's going to be that close.

At seven, I'll be at the Volunteer Appreciation Party at the Mission Palms Hotel in downtown Tempe with David Schapira, Ed Ableser, and Harry Mitchell. I'll live-blog from there. Don't start sweating bullets yet.

Polls Close in Seven Hours!

Any last ditch efforts, now is the time to help get-out-the-vote! Get out there, people!

I'm currently at the Tempe Field Office, live-blogging. I'll be here all day, so if you come in, say hello. I'm the tall guy with the long blonde hair. I'll put up results the second I see them, plus any numbers I get throughout the day.

Some election day fun:

Tomorrow

If you haven't voted early or by mail, well, there is an election tomorrow. Don't forget.

If you want to help with the Get-Out-The-Vote, there are plenty of opportunities. Come by the Democratic Field Office in Tempe. There will be phone-banking all day and numerous opportunities to get out and make sure everyone has voted. The field office is located at the southwest corner of Mill Ave. and Ash St. in Tempe. It's behind the tattoo parlour and pizza shop, has all the Democratic signs, can't miss it.

Polling has been looking great for Democrats, and it's been looking great for Harry Mitchell. He definitely has the momentum coming into this race. Hayworth's camp passed on releasing their internal numbers after Harry's showed him down by two points. It's all ground-game now. Come out and help with the GOTV effort, get your friends and family to vote, and vote yourself.

I'm not any good at predicting the future and I feel that I jinx too many things as it is, so I'll abstain from making any predictions. The race could easily go either way. One thing for sure is that it will be close. Very close.

I'll be live-blogging from either the field office or the Wyndam hotel in Tempe where the election night party is going to be. Not sure exactly where yet. Other than a test I have to take in the morning tomorrow, I'll be at the field office all day. The results should come in after 9 PM or so.

Have a nice election day eve and lets cross our fingers for the best. Like I said, I'm no good at predictions, but I have a feeling tomorrow is going to be a great day.

Bill Clinton at ASU Today!

The former President is coming to ASU this afternoon to rally for Harry Mitchell, Jim Pederson, and Terry Goddard! This was a great surprise to many, including me. Clinton was scheduled for an event with Pederson in Tucson tonight and he's going to stop by the Valley to attend a get-out-the-vote rally. This is very exciting. I heard about it last night at 7:30 from a robo-call by the state party. I'm on campus in Tempe now, blogging from the library. There is a great feeling of anticipation on campus, and I mean everybody is talking about it. This is an amazing development for the Mitchell campaign.

A new SUSA poll (they've done three in the last two months!) shows Mitchell over Hayworth 48% to 46%. It's still within the margin of error and Geo points out some weird discrepancies. Either way, we know that this race is tight and we can only out-work the state Republican Party and the Hayworth camp if we want Mitchell to pull this one out. It'll be a nail-biter to the end, but we have the volunteers, Mitchell has the money, and now, we have President Clinton to rally the voters!

If you can come, and there are few good reasons not to, the rally will be at 3:30 at Arizona State University in Tempe. It will be at Hayden Lawn which is right next to the Memorial Union and above the Library at the center of campus. The event is free, but I'm expecting a lot of people to show, so come early if you can, stop by the Young Democrats' table and hang out (I'll be there in the Harry Mitchell shirt). There is a lot of space around the lawn, but optimal viewing is going to go fast. Come out and support Harry Mitchell and our other Democratic candidates!