New Poll: Mitchell Closing In!

SurveyUSA has a new poll that was published in the Phoenix Business Journal.

Harry Mitchell 45%
J.D. Hayworth 50%

Amazing. Mitchell has been in the race for less than a month officially. First, he raises almost a quarter of a million in a few weeks. Now, he is polling within 5% of an entrenched incumbent! Keep in mind, the margin of error is 4.1%, and I wouldn't be surprised if they started polling within the MoE soon.

In a hypothetical election in Arizona's 5th Congressional District today,
5/9/06, Republican incumbent J.D. Hayworth is narrowly re-elected over possible
Democratic challenger Harry Mitchell, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted
exclusively for KPNX-TV Phoenix. 6 months from the 11/7/06 general election,
Hayworth gets 50% to 45% for the Democrat Mitchell. Hayworth gets 79% of
Republican votes. Mitchell gets 83% of Democrat votes. Independents break 50% to
44% for the Democrat. Hayworth leads by 13 points among men and trails by 2
points among women, a 15-point Gender Gap. Mitchell leads 4:1 among Liberals and
3:2 among the most educated voters. Mitchell will be Hayworth's opponent if
Mitchell wins the Arizona Democratic Primary on 9/12/06.

I'd like Harry's percentage among Democrats to be higher, but it's early and I'm not sure of Harry's name recognition among Scottsdale, Chandler, Phoenix, and Fountain Hills voters. Hayworth's 79% among Republicans must reflect the current national move towards the dominant party. Republican turnout will be key in this election and national polls are saying Democrats are more excited to vote this cycle. Let's hope Arizona follows that trend.

Update: Mister T has more on this over at Kos.