Eve of March Open Thread

Just a quick update, Larry King has a new website. I'm expecting his other one to convert over pretty soon.

This is our first open thread, so have at it

Internal Poll Shows Hayworth's Vulnerability

Kos got his hands on a DCCC-sponsored internal poll. I think this is good news at this point.

Hayworth (R) 44
King (D) 37

Also of note, State Sen. Harry Mitchell and former State Sen. Chuck Blanchard outpolled Hayworth (43-42 and 41-40, respectively).

Also, props to RBH for finding the CD breakdown of the 2000 and 2004 elections.

Bush/Gore H2H in the current districts

AZ-01: 53/47 Bush
AZ-02: 58/42 Bush
AZ-03: 56/44 Bush
AZ-05: 55/45 Bush
AZ-06: 62/38 Bush
AZ-08: 52/48 Bush

Bush/Kerry H2H from 2004

AZ-01: 54/46 Bush
AZ-02: 62/38 Bush
AZ-03: 58/42 Bush
AZ-05: 54/46 Bush
AZ-06: 65/35 Bush
AZ-08: 53/47 Bush

Not much, but it could be worse. It's great to know that progress has been made.

Thanks to Kos for posting the blog on the main page and to others in the discussion. I really appreciate all of it.

Note: The districts are a bit different now than in 2000. I'll see if I can dig up any maps, but I think the district remained mostly the same except for the Indian Reservations.

Update on Polls

I found those polls. SurveyUSA did these on Jan. 16. I expect these numbers to have eased a bit for Hayworth, since the Arizona media isn't aggressively investigating Hayworth's Abramoff connections. If only the Arizona Republic would work as hard as the media up in Montana (they are blasting Conrad Burns).

Do you think Congressman J.D. Hayworth is telling the truth when he says he received a twenty-two hundred and fifty dollar campaign contribution from Jack Abramoff, the lobbyist who has pleaded guilty to charges of fraud, conspiracy, and tax evasion?
26% Telling the Truth
62% Not Telling the Truth
12% Not sure

This poll (and two others concerning Hayworth) were originally reported by the Phoenix Business Journal.

The Landscape of District 5

AZ-05 is a large and diverse district that stetches from the heart of the Phoenix metro area to the suburbs and outlying areas of the Valley. All of the cities of Scottsdale, Tempe, and Fountain Hills are included in the District along with the Salt River-Pima and Fort McDowell Indian Communities and portions of west Chandler, Phoenix (including all of Ahwatukee), and west Mesa.

Scottsdale and Ahwatukee are widely known in Arizona as GOP strongholds. Republicans also hold the advantage in Fountain Hills and Chandler. Tempe is a much different story. It's status as an urban university city has made it a liberal hotspot in the Valley of the Sun. The main campus of ASU in Tempe boasts of student population of nearly 50,000, many living on or near campus. Democrats also hold the advantage in east Mesa and south Scottsdale, along with the Indian communities.

Playing the numbers game, we know off the bat that AZ-05 looks like a solid red district. The Secretary of State's office has published the preliminary registration numbers for the 2006 cycle and the numbers for this district don't look pretty at first glance.

Registered Voters:
Democrats - 99,954 (28%)
Republicans- 156,291 (44%)
Independents- 95,875 (27%)
Libertarians- 2,876 (<1%)

2004 Race:
Hayworth- 59.5% (159,455 votes)
Rogers- 38.2% (102,363 votes)

We must also take into account recent events. The American people are clearly fed up with the corrupt Republican Congress. The Abramoff-scandal is getting hotter each day and Hayworth is a part of that Culture of Corruption.

Hayworth is the largest receipient of Abramoff money. Between 2001 and 2004, Hayworth accepted nearly $65,000 in Abramoff-connected donations. He also was one of many Congressmen that used Abramoff's sports skyboxes for free and failed to disclose these gifts, a possible violation of House rules. Hayworth donated the money to charity but still declares no wrongdoing, despite his votes in favor of Abramoff concerning many Native American tribes.

Clearly, the American people are growing tired of the Republican leadership that has bred a Culture of Corruption. J.D. Hayworth is one of dirtiest Congressmen in Washington and it will be very important that Larry King or the eventual Democratic nominee pummel Hayworth with this information and his warm ties with President Bush.

This is an uphill battle. It will be like climbing Mount Everest, actually. However, I have hope. The special OH-02 election could have been a preview for this November. Paul Hackett received nearly half of the votes in a district that's almost 70% Republican. There is no reason we cannot repeat that here in AZ-05.

Note: I will try to dig up how AZ-05 voted in the last Presidential election, I think that will give us a better idea of how this district stands. Also, I remember reading about some polls concerning Hayworth and his Abramoff connections, so I'll look for that as well because the numbers were actually quite astonishing.

Update: I found those polls. SurveyUSA did these on Jan. 16. I expect these numbers to have eased a bit for Hayworth, since the Arizona media isn't aggressively investigating Hayworth's Abramoff connections. If only the Arizona Republic would work as hard as the media up in Montana (they are blasting Conrad Burns).

Do you think Congressman J.D. Hayworth is telling the truth when he says he received a twenty-two hundred and fifty dollar campaign contribution from Jack Abramoff, the lobbyist who has pleaded guilty to charges of fraud, conspiracy, and tax evasion?
26% Telling the Truth
62% Not Telling the Truth
12% Not sure

This poll (and two others concerning Hayworth) were originally reported by the Phoenix Business Journal.

Hello and Welcome!

The 2006 Congressional races are only ten short months away and it's time to put Democratic Chairman Howard Dean's "50-state strategy" to the test. Every district, every state, every seat with a Republican incumbent must be challenged to ensure a strong state and national party. I have dedicated this blog to the news and happenings of Arizona's Fifth Congressional District and the race between Republican J.D. Hayworth and the only Democratic challenger as of now, Larry King of Scottsdale.

I hope that this blog is stumbled upon by many and I hope even more that some are from this district. It will take a lot of hard work and a tremendous amount of support and resources to unseat J.D. Hayworth, but I think it can be done. I refuse to believe that this district must be written off as too red. No doubt, J.D. Hayworth has a large warchest and is a strong incumbent. However, this district is not as red as the national and state Democratic Party have made it out to be.

It will take a real grassroots movement to strengthen the Democratic Party here in AZ-05. I think it can be done and I think we can offer J.D. Hayworth more than just token opposition. So, I start this blog off with an open thread to hear your thoughts on the race and the district.