New SUSA Poll: Hayworth up by 12

A new SurveyUSA poll has J.D. Hayworth leading Harry Mitchell by 12 points.

Hayworth: 52%
Mitchell: 40%
Severin: 4%
Undecided: 4%

590 Likely Voters, MoE 4.1%

As Craig at Random Musings has pointed out, the GOP holds a 17% advantage in registered voters. It is encouraging to see Harry cutting into that since only 84% of Republicans are planning on voting for J.D.

However, I find this poll discouraging. The last SUSA poll had Hayworth at 50% with only a five point lead. And Harry is pulling in only 83% of Democrats.

This race is still winnable. The poll proves that Hayworth is not that popular in the district. He has been hovering around 50% for several months now and that is never good for an incumbent. Harry and the campaign have been walking almost everyday in Scottsdale and Tempe. Driving through Tempe neighborhoods, you can see that people are excited for Mitchell with lawn signs all over the place and no love for J.D. in sight.

I think this race will tighten up once the DCCC puts out the ad buy and Harry gets his message out to all the channel surfers. At this point, volunteers are crucial. Get out there and do some walking. Reserve just an hour to do some phone-banking. And if you can't volunteer, contribute.

Go Harry!

Update: Daily Kos poster RBH has the party ID breakdown of the SUSA poll:

52R/28D/19I

AZ-05 actually breaks like this: 44R/28D/27I

I agree with RBH. They oversampled Republicans and this race is closer than it looks. I withdraw my "discourging" remark.

GIVE 'EM HELL, HARRY!!

Update #2: I was looking over the details of this SUSA poll and I'm shocked. Generation Y voters break for J.D. 76%. Harry's support from women is in the low 40's. Hayworth is winning the Hispanic vote! Either something is seriously wrong with this poll or I just don't get it. Can someone with more knowledge on polls and statistics help us out?